ENVIRONMENTAL MYTHS - ANWR

     The AAPG believes that the 1002 area of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), and the similar coastal plain area of the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska (NPRA), should be opened to exploration and development. A study recently released by the United States Geological Survey (March, 1998) cites potential economically recoverable oil resources beneath the ANWR Coastal Zone 1002 Area of 5.7 to 16 billion barrels of crude oil, with a mean expected resource of 10.3 billion BO. Mean peak production rates of 1.0 to 1.35 million BOPD are expected. The 1002 Area represents only 8% of ANWR's 19 million acres. Less than 1 percent of the land within the 1002 area would be affected by petroleum exploration and development activities. Parts of the coastal plain of the NPRA, held back by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) from the 1999 lease sale at the instruction of the Secretary of the Interior, contain an estimated minimum of 1.5 billion barrels.

     The major objection to development of the Prudhoe Bay Field and Trans Alaska Pipeline was the potential threat of the development to Caribou migrations. According to the US Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, the Prudhoe Bay herd, also known as the Central Arctic Herd has increased from 6,000 in 1978 to 19,700 in 2000. The caribou are not bothered by the petroleum development infrastructure - in fact they prefer it to the prospect of having their calves devoured by wolves.

     Opponents of ANWR development say that it is not worth forever despoiling ANWR for a few month's of oil supply. This is a specious argument that assumes that supply from all other sources ceases during the life of the ANWR reserves. According to Government studies, the 2001 area of ANWR, could produce over 1.0 MMBO per day. Like the Prudhoe Bay area, production operations will likely run for more than 25 years, providing vital crude oil and natural gas for the nation's economy, significant employment in Alaska and in the Lower 48 from production operations and equipment supply, hundreds of millions of dollars of annual state and federal tax and royalty income, as well as a reduction in the outflow of funds for the purchase of imported crude oil.

    During this year Secretary of Energy Bill Richardson has repeatedly been on his hands and knees before the Arab OPEC producers to beg for production increases of initially 200,000 BOPD and then 800,000 BOPD. This is a humiliating gesture for the United States, the most powerful nation in the world. The current supply/demand balance is so precarious now, that even the threat of a storm in the Gulf of Mexico causes oil and gas prices to shoot up momentarily. An incremental 1 million barrels of oil per day from ANWR for a sustained period of at least 10 years would make a huge difference in the supply side equation.

     During 1999, according to the EIA, the US obtained 23% of its oil imports of 10.6 MM bbl/day, or 2.43 MM bbl/day, from the Persian Gulf Region. If one were to use the same argument as the ANWR opponents about supply, development of potential ANWR reserves of 10+ billion barrels would eliminate 11 years of dependency on imports from the dangerously volatile Middle East.

     The giant Alaskan Prudhoe Field went into production in 1977, and produced its 10 billionth barrel of crude oil in May, 2000. The field reached a regulated peak of 1.5 million barrels per day in 1979, and produced at this rate through 1988. Production is now in a steep decline.